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		<title>Bubble Zen: When is a bubble half-inflated?</title>
		<link>http://www.mathewingram.com/work/2006/01/28/bubble-zen-when-is-a-bubble-half-inflated/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mathewingram.com/work/2006/01/28/bubble-zen-when-is-a-bubble-half-inflated/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 28 Jan 2006 16:59:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mathew</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Web2.0]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[boom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bubble]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[startups]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wired]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Lots of talk in the blogosphere about Chris &#8220;Long Tail&#8221; Anderson&#8217;s piece on The New Boom in Wired magazine. In it, Chris says point blank that what we&#8217;re all seeing &#8212; the multiple VC rounds for startups with virtually no revenue, the $30-million buyouts of del.icio.us, not to mention the $4-billion or so for Skype [...]]]></description>
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<p>Lots of talk in the blogosphere about Chris <a href="http://www.longtail.com">&#8220;Long Tail&#8221;</a> Anderson&#8217;s piece on <a href="http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/14.02/boom.html">The New Boom</a> in Wired magazine. In it, Chris says point blank that what we&#8217;re all seeing &#8212; the multiple VC rounds for startups with virtually no revenue, the $30-million buyouts of <a href="http://del.icio.us" title="http://del.icio.us" target="_blank">del.icio.us</a>, not to mention the $4-billion or so for Skype &#8212; isn&#8217;t a bubble, it&#8217;s a boom. So there.</p>
<blockquote><p>A boom perhaps, but not (phew!) a bubble. There&#8217;s a difference. Bubbles are inflated with hot air and speculation. They end with a wet pop, leaving behind messy splatters. Booms, on the other hand, tend to have strong foundations and gentle conclusions. Bubbles can be good: They spark a huge amount of investment that can make things easier for the next generation, even as they bankrupt the current one. But booms &#8211; with their more rational allocation of capital &#8211; are better. The problem is that exuberance can make it hard to tell one from the other.</p></blockquote>
<p>How can Chris be so sure? Because &#8220;the Internet and digital media are clearly not fads&#8221; and &#8220;some silly bubble-era ideas are starting to actually make sense &#8211; perhaps a lot of sense.&#8221; But the key, he says, is that it costs less to start and run a Boom 2.0 company, and that means less venture capital, and less venture capital means &#8220;fewer venture capitalists hustling for early exits at high valuations. That, in turn, reduces the pressure to go public and translates to fewer undercooked companies launching IPOs on hype alone.&#8221; </p>
<p>A fair point &#8212; and one I&#8217;ve talked about with friends recently: where does that leave VCs? Hunting around for deals to do, and watching companies grow and <a href="http://vcmike.wordpress.com/2006/01/29/vc-mike-on-internet-investing-and-startups/">be acquired with no VC money at all.</a> For what it&#8217;s worth, Om Malik says he thinks <a href="http://gigaom.com/2006/01/27/the-new-boom-a-little-old/">the new boom is about halfway over</a>. How does he know that? He&#8217;s not saying. That&#8217;s a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koan">Zen koan</a> kind of question: How do you know when a bubble is half-inflated?</p>
<p>My friend Mark Evans <a href="http://evans.blogware.com/blog/_archives/2006/1/28/1726981.html">isn&#8217;t so sure about the non-bubble talk</a>, and I think he is right to be cautious. As we all know, the phrase &#8220;it&#8217;s different this time&#8221; is what got investors into so much trouble last time around. Nick Carr also <a href="http://www.roughtype.com/archives/2006/01/the_supplyside.php">makes a good point</a>, which is that entrepeneurs are not the ones who make a bubble a bubble, since they are the &#8220;supply&#8221; side of the equation &#8212; the problem is the &#8220;demand&#8221; side, i.e. the market. When it becomes frenetic, then the rules go out the window. Kent Newsome says everyone is <a href="http://www.newsome.org/2006/01/lets-not-forget-other-b-word.shtml">swinging for the fences</a> instead of being content with a single.</p>
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