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		<title>Google misses &#8211; but will it matter?</title>
		<link>http://www.mathewingram.com/work/2006/01/31/google-misses-but-will-it-matter/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mathewingram.com/work/2006/01/31/google-misses-but-will-it-matter/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Jan 2006 22:34:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mathew</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[miss]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[sales]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Google may be working on a version of the Ubuntu Linux OS, as reported by The Register, but maybe it should be spending a bit more time on a good accounting app &#8212; it just missed Wall Street&#8217;s estimates for both sales and profit for the latest quarter. The stock dropped by as much as [...]]]></description>
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<p>Google may be working on a version of the Ubuntu Linux OS, as reported by The Register, but maybe it should be spending a bit more time on a good accounting app &#8212; it just <a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060131/earns_google.html">missed Wall Street&#8217;s estimates </a> for both sales and profit for the latest quarter. The stock dropped by as much as 19 per cent <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&#038;s=GOOG">in after-hours trading</a>.</p>
<p>Does that matter to the company&#8217;s long-term future? Probably not. But it will likely take some of the shine off for the momentum traders, of whom there are likely a lot. And there were some troubling signs in the numbers at first glance &#8212; even if you assume that <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=GOOG">the analysts&#8217; estimates</a> were inflated (which they likely were). For one thing, the company&#8217;s tax rate was substantially higher than expected &#8211; 41 per cent instead of about 26 per cent &#8211; and costs were also higher than anticipated. Too much money being spent on projects like the <a href="http://www.mathewingram.com/work/index.php/2006/01/30/google-bookmarks-is-that-the-best-they-can-do/">lame addition of bookmarks</a> to the Google toolbar perhaps?</p>
<p>One caveat: Even assuming that a majority of analysts are craven weasels (just kidding, guys) it is difficult for analysts to analyze a company that is not only growing at an incredible rate, but which <a href="http://news.com.com/Analysts+cant+peg+Google/2100-1030_3-5386197.html">refuses to provide any guidance</a> on future results, or any details on current operations. That&#8217;s going to make future surprises even more likely.</p>
<p><b>Update:</b></p>
<p>As usual, some of the hysteria that is common with after-hours trading (when there is less volume and therefore more volatility) dissipated on Wednesday, but <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&#038;s=GOOG">Google&#8217;s stock was still down</a> almost 10 per cent at one point in the morning. Not surprising, given the number of momentum traders that are riding this particular horse. Although <a href="http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060201:MTFH94952_2006-02-01_13-37-12_BNG267002&#038;symbol=GOOG.O">UBS has downgraded the stock</a> to &#8220;neutral&#8221; &#8211; in other words, closing the door after the horse has left the stable &#8211; Google&#8217;s explanation that the higher tax rate accounts for the bulk of the miss seems plausible. And the company has said it will provide more details on that kind of thing.</p>
<p>In the end, there&#8217;s no real smoking gun in these results for the Google bears &#8211; although my friend Paul Kedrosky notes that it&#8217;s worth asking <a href="http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/002512.html">why the tax rate was so much higher</a> than expected. And whatever the answer to that question, Google&#8217;s &#8220;miss&#8221; serves as a healthy warning to investors. As the old saying goes, bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs often get slaughtered.</p>
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