Comments on: Vonage pulls the trigger - out of desperation? http://www.mathewingram.com/work/2006/02/08/vonage-pulls-the-trigger-out-of-desperation/ ... at the intersection of media, technology, business and the web Thu, 04 Dec 2008 01:47:06 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: Stuart MacDonald http://www.mathewingram.com/work/2006/02/08/vonage-pulls-the-trigger-out-of-desperation/#comment-370 Stuart MacDonald Thu, 09 Feb 2006 20:03:34 +0000 http://www.mathewingram.com/work/index.php/2006/02/08/vonage-pulls-the-trigger-out-of-desperation/#comment-370 The Pioneers get the arrows, the Settlers get the land. Even more arrows when the Pioneers are trying to build on the shaky ground the Settlers already control. -- Stuart The Pioneers get the arrows, the Settlers get the land. Even more arrows when the Pioneers are trying to build on the shaky ground the Settlers already control.

– Stuart

]]> By: Mathew http://www.mathewingram.com/work/2006/02/08/vonage-pulls-the-trigger-out-of-desperation/#comment-366 Mathew Thu, 09 Feb 2006 18:37:27 +0000 http://www.mathewingram.com/work/index.php/2006/02/08/vonage-pulls-the-trigger-out-of-desperation/#comment-366 That's a fair point about TiVo and the love -- and you're right that Vonage is more of a price thing, which is death. But I think they are similar in the sense that neither one is a good investment, and that's because being a pioneer doesn't always translate into becoming a good business or a good investment, for a whole bunch of reasons. For both TiVo and Vonage, it's because the cable guys are taking away the functionality -- both the DVR thing and the VOIP thing -- and there's not enough left over to be worth investing in, or at least not enough to make either one worth what it wants to be worth. That’s a fair point about TiVo and the love — and you’re right that Vonage is more of a price thing, which is death. But I think they are similar in the sense that neither one is a good investment, and that’s because being a pioneer doesn’t always translate into becoming a good business or a good investment, for a whole bunch of reasons. For both TiVo and Vonage, it’s because the cable guys are taking away the functionality — both the DVR thing and the VOIP thing — and there’s not enough left over to be worth investing in, or at least not enough to make either one worth what it wants to be worth.

]]> By: Stuart MacDonald http://www.mathewingram.com/work/2006/02/08/vonage-pulls-the-trigger-out-of-desperation/#comment-365 Stuart MacDonald Thu, 09 Feb 2006 18:29:52 +0000 http://www.mathewingram.com/work/index.php/2006/02/08/vonage-pulls-the-trigger-out-of-desperation/#comment-365 I wouldn't use a TiVo analogy here - there are people who LOVE their TiVo. They are happy to shout it from the rooftops etc. Sure, they're not a mighty throng, but they are out there; for some, TiVo makes their lives better, which is just the best marketing strategy going. Near as I can figure (and yes, I am not a VoIPer) this does little to truly make my life better. All this does is allow me to do the same thing I've always done, for less. Where's the unique selling proposition in that? Smells like a fight to the price bottom against those who can always discount further, either because they are cable/phone companies who own the assets or they are portals with IM installs who have a lot of prospects "for free." Meanwhile, you have ever escalating customer acquisition costs. Yech. -- Stuart I wouldn’t use a TiVo analogy here - there are people who LOVE their TiVo. They are happy to shout it from the rooftops etc. Sure, they’re not a mighty throng, but they are out there; for some, TiVo makes their lives better, which is just the best marketing strategy going. Near as I can figure (and yes, I am not a VoIPer) this does little to truly make my life better. All this does is allow me to do the same thing I’ve always done, for less. Where’s the unique selling proposition in that? Smells like a fight to the price bottom against those who can always discount further, either because they are cable/phone companies who own the assets or they are portals with IM installs who have a lot of prospects “for free.” Meanwhile, you have ever escalating customer acquisition costs.

Yech.

– Stuart

]]> By: Mathew http://www.mathewingram.com/work/2006/02/08/vonage-pulls-the-trigger-out-of-desperation/#comment-358 Mathew Thu, 09 Feb 2006 16:50:43 +0000 http://www.mathewingram.com/work/index.php/2006/02/08/vonage-pulls-the-trigger-out-of-desperation/#comment-358 That's my sense too. I wouldn't touch the thing with a 10-foot pole, just between you and me. The fact that Jeff Citron and his backers are so desperate to cash in, er... "monetize" their holdings makes me nervous. I think Vonage is another TiVo in the making -- a pioneer that winds up getting creamed. That’s my sense too. I wouldn’t touch the thing with a 10-foot pole, just between you and me. The fact that Jeff Citron and his backers are so desperate to cash in, er… “monetize” their holdings makes me nervous. I think Vonage is another TiVo in the making — a pioneer that winds up getting creamed.

]]> By: Stuart MacDonald http://www.mathewingram.com/work/2006/02/08/vonage-pulls-the-trigger-out-of-desperation/#comment-354 Stuart MacDonald Thu, 09 Feb 2006 16:17:06 +0000 http://www.mathewingram.com/work/index.php/2006/02/08/vonage-pulls-the-trigger-out-of-desperation/#comment-354 Like I said on Mark's blog, the marketing spend on this puppy stinks. And it won't be getting any cheaper down the road, once the market gets even more competitive. I have seen this movie, and their marketing spend is not going down any time soon. Could adoption go into hyper-drive and they are suddenly in the money? Perhaps. But gut says unlikely that they would be the primary beneficiary from overall category growth. That's going to be the cable and phone companies. Net/net: it is no wonder they are trying to float it. -- Stuart Like I said on Mark’s blog, the marketing spend on this puppy stinks. And it won’t be getting any cheaper down the road, once the market gets even more competitive. I have seen this movie, and their marketing spend is not going down any time soon. Could adoption go into hyper-drive and they are suddenly in the money? Perhaps. But gut says unlikely that they would be the primary beneficiary from overall category growth. That’s going to be the cable and phone companies. Net/net: it is no wonder they are trying to float it.

– Stuart

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